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Will it rain today? A useful rainfall rain radar map for the UK. You can easily pan and zoom on the map to view the exact local rainfall.

November 15, 2025Footage from Monmouth and Abergavenny shows severe flooding after heavy rainfall on Friday. South Wales fire and rescue service declared a major incident in Monmouth in the early hours of Saturday after ‘severe and widespread’ flooding across the town and surrounding communities Storm Claudia: major incident declared after severe flooding in UK Continue reading… [...] Read more...
November 15, 2025South Wales fire service describes ‘large-scale incident’ as England braces for cold weather warnings A major incident has been declared in the aftermath of Storm Claudia, with more rain and flooding expected across Britain and Ireland on Saturday. Four severe flood warnings had been issued by Natural Resources Wales as of 6am. This means there was a “significant risk to life and significant disruption to the community is expected”. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
November 14, 2025Met Office upgrades warnings to amber with ‘persistent and heavy’ rain, strong winds and thunderstorms forecast for Friday Storm Claudia is expected to bring torrential rain to parts of England and Wales as the Met Office upgraded its warnings. Amber warnings for “persistent and heavy” rain come into force from noon on Friday until the end of the day and cover parts of Wales, the Midlands, the south-west, the south-east and east of England. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
November 13, 2025Risk of flooding in parts of England and Wales as storm that has battered Canary Islands makes land Flooding could hit parts of the UK with forecasters issuing an amber warning for rain. Storm Claudia, which was named by the Spanish meteorological service, will bring heavy downpours and strong winds on Friday for much of the country. Some areas could have up to 8cm of rain, with deep flood water posing a danger to life. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
November 13, 2025Understanding COP30: The Difference Between Formal and Action Agendas kathryn.wolak 13 November 2025 As world leaders, scientists, and civil society gather in Belém, Brazil for COP30, one of the most important United Nations climate summits yet, you may hear two terms being used: the formal agenda and the action agenda. Both are essential to how a COP functions, but they serve very different purposes. So what’s the difference, and why does it matter? The Formal Agenda: Where Negotiations Happen The formal agenda is the official, legal part of the COP, where countries sit down to negotiate and make decisions that can shape international climate policy for years to come. These discussions happen between government delegates and are guided by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Every word and comma can matter because the outcomes, known as decisions, are legally recognised under international climate agreements such as the Paris Agreement. Typical items on the formal agenda at COP30 include: Finalising the new global climate finance goal to replace the current $100 billion annual commitment, a key point of contention between developed and developing nations. Progress on national climate plans (NDCs), which countries must strengthen ahead of 2025 to stay aligned with the 1.5°C temperature goal. The Global Goal on Adaptation, helping countries prepare for and adapt to climate impacts. Loss and Damage Fund implementation, ensuring vulnerable nations receive support after climate-related disasters. These negotiations are often slow and technical, but they are vital. They determine how countries will collectively act, measure progress, and hold each other accountable. The Action Agenda: Where Implementation Comes to Life While the formal talks take place behind closed doors, the action agenda, sometimes called the “non-negotiated” or “implementation” track, brings the COP to life in a more public and practical way. This is where cities, businesses, NGOs, researchers, youth, and indigenous communities share ideas, launch initiatives, and showcase solutions. It’s about action, not negotiation, demonstrating how commitments can be turned into reality. Examples of action agenda items at COP30 include: The launch of new initiatives to protect the Amazon and promote sustainable forest economies. Partnerships on renewable energy, including collaborations between governments and private investors. Events on climate education and literacy, such as those led by the Royal Meteorological Society and university partners. Panels featuring indigenous leaders and local communities, showing how traditional knowledge supports climate resilience. These discussions don’t create binding commitments, but they inspire, connect, and push progress forward on the ground, often faster than the formal process can. Why Both Matter In short, the formal agenda shapes the rules of the global response to climate change, while the action agenda drives the real-world momentum behind those rules. Think of the formal agenda as setting the destination and the action agenda as showing the many routes we can take to get there. Without both, COPs would lose their power: one provides structure and accountability, the other provides energy and innovation. Understanding these two sides helps us appreciate how global climate progress really happens: through negotiation and through action.   Explore more COP30 updates from RMetS 13 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 13, 2025COP30 Kicks Off: Resilience, Data, and the Power of Climate Education Take the Stage kathryn.wolak 13 November 2025 The first few days of the 30th annual UN climate conference in Belém, Brazil, have already laid down significant signals about the direction of the global climate agenda. The framing of COP30 strongly emphasises implementation — shifting from “what we will do” to “how we deliver”. Over the first couple of days the focus has been on “readiness and resilience” — emphasising adaptation, infrastructure, local governments, circular economy, water/waste systems. Major Themes and Highlights: Readiness, Resilience and Adaptation The early sessions made clear that climate change is no longer just about long-term emissions reductions, but about what is happening now — as the weather becomes more extreme and the impacts become more devastating. There has been a strong emphasis on infrastructure, cities, water management, waste, local action, bio-economy and circular economy under the umbrella of resilience. And how to track adaptation progress, set measurable indicators, and mobilise resources for adaptation solutions. Finance, Nature and Forests Nature-based solutions and forests are centre-stage — particularly given the Amazon host-setting. Finance remains a central question: how to mobilise enough for adaptation, nature protection, and resilience — and how to ensure the money actually gets to the places and systems that need it most. The interplay between public finance, private capital, access for developing countries, and equity in finance is becoming more visible. Equity, Justice, and Implementation There is a clear thread that climate action must incorporate justice, inclusion, and the voices of those most vulnerable. The adaptation/resilience focus reinforces this. The “just transition” agenda is more present and how to ensure that workers, communities, and regions transition fairly into low-carbon futures. Implementation challenges are front and centre as the world is increasingly acknowledging that many earlier targets are off track, so COP30 is being framed as the “deliver” COP, not just the “promise” COP. Symbolism and Political Context Hosting in the Amazon region is highly symbolic as it binds climate with forests, Indigenous rights, nature and the Global South’s voice. Geopolitical dynamics, trust in multilateralism, finance flows and whether developed/developing countries meet past commitments remain sources of tension and focus. Addressing the Data Gap At COP30 on 11 November, the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) officially launched its 2025 Action Report (https://un-soff.org/soff-action-report-2025/ ) and the Systematic Observation Impact Bond (watch the video https://un-soff.org/impactbond/).   SOFF not only recognises, but is taking swift action in, closing the global weather and climate data gap, particularly in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), where less than 10 % of required surface-based observations are currently exchanged.  By spotlighting SOFF early in the conference, COP30 is signalling that data infrastructure, and not just emission cuts or finance pledges, is integral to the climate agenda. The data gap is being framed as a core bottleneck for adaptation and resilience. Florence Rabier, Director-General of ECMWF, spoke at the SOFF launch on 11 November, underlining that closing the observing-system gap is foundational for accurate forecasts, early warnings and climate services. Watch her brief video message on the importance of SOFF on the RMetS COP30 website. Education Takes Centre Stage As COP30 moves into the middle of the first week, attention shifts towards education, skills, culture and justice, recognising that long-term climate progress depends not only on policy and finance, but on empowering people with the knowledge to act. Wednesday 12 November marks the launch of the Royal Meteorological Society’s Climate Literacy School Leavers Survey, a landmark initiative exploring how climate literate young people are when they leave school. Education is one of the core enablers of meaningful climate action, shaping how future generations interpret information, make informed choices, and build resilience in their communities. This will be highlighted in the Education Panel hosted by Cambridge University Press in the Blue Pavilion, where Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, joins other global education leaders to discuss how climate literacy and future-focused skills through education systems can accelerate the transition to a more sustainable world as well as navigating misinformation. The education theme at COP30 is a timely reminder that effective climate solutions rely on both scientific insight and societal understanding, and that investing in climate literacy today is essential to building a resilient, informed, and empowered global community tomorrow.   Explore more COP30 updates from RMetS   13 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 13, 2025From Anglesey to Ben Nevis and Burnley, observers have been gathering invaluable data for hundreds of years British people have always had a keen interest in the weather. Not only do they talk about it, they go out and measure it. A new paper in the journal Weather celebrates some of the UK’s most prolific and dedicated rainfall observers. Richard Towneley started the trend in 1677, taking regular measurements of the amount of rain that fell at Towneley Hall near Burnley. By 1860, George Symons had started to coordinate the collection of rainfall data and set up the British Rainfall Organisation, gathering data from several hundred rain gauges across the nation. Many observers diligently collected observations for 50 years or more, while others, such as Clement Lindley Wragge, went to great lengths to gather their data. Wragge walked a 22km (14-mile) round trip every day between June and October of 1881 to retrieve data from the weather station at the top of the UK’s highest peak, Ben Nevis. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
November 12, 2025UK school leavers still unprepared for green careers, new RMetS survey finds nathan.reece@r… 12 November 2025 The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) has released the results of its 2025 Climate Literacy Survey, revealing that many UK school leavers still lack the understanding and skills needed to participate fully in the transition to a green economy. The annual survey, which gathered responses from over 1,000 school leavers across the UK, found continued limited understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as low awareness of the policies and actions that can help people prepare for and adapt to a changing climate in the UK. Professor Sylvia Knight, Head of Education at the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “As the UK moves toward a clean energy economy, climate literacy will be fundamental to preparing young people for green careers. Our latest survey shows that while students care deeply about climate change, many are leaving school without the knowledge and confidence they’ll need to make informed choices – both as citizens and as workers in a decarbonised economy.” The findings come after the publication of the Curriculum and Assessment Review (CAR) and the Review of the Northern Ireland Curriculum, which placed climate and environmental education at the heart of its recommendations, and the UK Government’s plan to create 400,000 new clean energy jobs by 2030. Together, they highlight both the urgency and opportunity in strengthening climate education across the UK’s nations. Among the key findings of the 2025 Climate Literacy Survey: Students show good awareness of which countries are currently emitting the most greenhouse gases, but less understanding of per capita and historical emissions, as well as regional variations in future climate impacts, which underpin global discussions on climate justice. Trust is highest in teachers, reinforcing the need to ensure teachers have access to high-quality, up-to-date training and classroom resources. Trust in social media is comparatively low, highlighting the importance of teaching media and data literacy to help students evaluate information sources and biases. Students in Scotland showed the strongest awareness of wind power’s contribution to the UK’s energy mix, suggesting stronger visibility of careers in this sector. 10% of respondents in Wales reported not learning about climate change since primary school – considerably higher than in other nations. The current geography curriculum’s emphasis on past climate change and its natural causes has led to limited recognition among students in England that the warming since the Industrial Revolution has been driven almost entirely by human activity. Without this awareness, students may struggle to recognise that people can – and should – take meaningful action to reduce climate change and its impacts on both society and the natural world. RMetS has long championed the integration of climate literacy across the curriculum, publishing its Curriculum for Climate Literacy earlier this year – a benchmark framework showing how all subjects can contribute to high-quality climate education. Professor Knight added: “As the curriculum is revised or developed in all four Nations of the UK, we have an unprecedented opportunity to significantly improve the climate literacy of our school leavers. If we want a workforce ready for a net-zero economy, we have to start with education.” The full results of the 2025 Climate Literacy Survey, along with analysis, are available from the Royal Meteorological Society’s education platform, Metlink.   Schools in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales will be invited to contribute to this critical piece of ongoing research early in 2026. Please contact education@rmets.org now to register your interest. 12 November 2025 Education [...] Read more...
November 11, 2025Why COPs Matter: The World’s Climate Negotiating Table kathryn.wolak 11 November 2025 Every year, leaders from nearly 200 nations gather for the UN Climate Change Conference, better known as the COP (Conference of the Parties). It’s easy to dismiss these summits as talk shops filled with speeches and political wrangling — but without them, the world would have no shared forum to tackle the defining issue of our time: the climate crisis. Why COPs Are Essential The COP process is more than diplomacy. It’s the only global platform where all nations — rich, poor, industrialised, and developing — come together to discuss, negotiate, and commit to collective climate action. The COP framework ensures:•    Accountability: Countries must regularly report on progress and update their emissions targets.•    Equity: It gives developing nations a voice in shaping climate finance and adaptation support.•    Momentum: It keeps the world’s focus on climate action, year after year, even as politics and priorities shift. Without the COPs, there would be no Paris Agreement, no global net-zero targets, and no mechanism for tracking emissions or climate finance. Every country would be left to act — or not act — in isolation. And even when major players like the United States choose not to fully engage — as is the case this year with the absence of U.S. delegates — the COP process remains crucial. The rest of the world continues to negotiate, build consensus, and move forward. Climate change doesn’t pause for politics, and neither can global cooperation.   Why the Royal Meteorological Society Attends For the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), attending COPs is an essential part of its mission to advance understanding of weather, climate, and their impacts on society. As a scientific body, RMetS provides independent, evidence-based insight to help ensure that discussions and decisions are informed by the best available climate science. RMetS is also a member of RINGO (Research and Independent Non-Governmental Organizations) — one of the nine official constituencies that represent civil society at COP. Through RINGO, the RMetS contributes to ensuring that scientific expertise and independent research remain at the heart of international climate negotiations, helping bridge the gap between research, policy, and real-world action. Writing blogs like this is also an important part of that work. Communicating clearly about why these global conferences matter — and what progress is being made — empowers individuals, communities, and organisations to connect their own actions to the broader global effort. It’s how science translates into awareness, and awareness into change.   What We’d Lose Without COP If COPs didn’t exist, climate action would likely be slower, patchier, and driven by short-term national interests. There would be no shared roadmap to limit global temperature rise, no system for climate adaptation aid, and no international pressure on high emitters to do better. The science would be clear, but the coordination would be chaos.   Progress So Far While the world is still far from meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, progress has been made. A decade ago, before the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world was on track for a catastrophic 4 to 5°C of warming by 2100. Thanks to the pledges, policies, and investments made since then — many born directly from COP negotiations — the current trajectory is around 2.5–2.7°C by century’s end. That may still be too high, but it’s a profound shift in the right direction. And behind that progress are real-world actions:•    Dozens of countries have enshrined net-zero by mid-century in law.•    Renewables now supply over 30% of global electricity.•    Climate finance to developing countries has more than doubled in the past decade.   The Bigger Picture The COPs have not solved climate change — but they have changed the global direction of travel. They have built the frameworks, mobilised trillions in investment, and given rise to global agreements that anchor hope in coordinated action rather than isolated efforts. Every degree — even every fraction of a degree — matters. And without the COP process, we would almost certainly be facing a far hotter, more unstable world than the one still within our power to protect. 11 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 10, 2025Remembering Alan Grant kathryn.wolak 10 November 2025 It is with great sadness that we share the news of the passing of Alan Grant, who died on 22 October 2025.  Alan was a valued member of our community and a Fellow of the Society during his time with us. He made significant contributions to his field and was recognised with both the QJ Editor’s Award in 2003 and the Buchan Prize in 2006. His dedication is deeply appreciated by those who had the pleasure of working alongside him.  A funeral service for Alan will be held at 2:30pm on Thursday, 20 November 2025, at Easthampstead Crematorium, Bracknell. Please contact info@rmets.org if you wish to attend, so that we can inform the organisers.  Our thoughts are with Alan’s family, friends, and all who knew him at this time.  10 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 10, 2025The Amazon Speaks at COP30 nathan.reece@r… 10 November 2025 For the first time ever, the UN’s annual climate summit — COP30 — is being held in the Amazon. The host city of Belém in Brazil sits near the edge of the world’s largest rainforest: a vast, living ecosystem that absorbs billions of tonnes of carbon, regulates global rainfall, and sustains one in every ten known species on Earth. The Amazon is home to more than 1.5 million Indigenous people and stores around 150–200 billion tonnes of carbon in its trees and soils. Scientists warn that if deforestation pushes beyond a critical “tipping point,” vast areas could transform into dry savannah, releasing that carbon back into the atmosphere and accelerating global warming. Brazil’s story captures both the hope and contradiction of climate politics. Under the current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, deforestation in the Amazon fell by nearly 50% between 2022 and 2024, reversing the record-breaking losses seen under former president Jair Bolsonaro. In 2024 alone, Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions dropped 17% — the largest annual reduction in 15 years. These gains made Brazil one of the few major economies actually cutting emissions in line with the Paris Agreement’s goals. And yet, Lula’s government has also approved new offshore oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River. The tension is clear: Brazil is trying to fund its green transition through fossil fuel revenues — a balancing act shared by many developing nations caught between urgent climate goals and pressing economic needs. For Indigenous leaders, however, the message is unequivocal. They are demanding firm recognition of land rights, direct access to climate finance, and explicit protection from extractive industries like mining, logging, and oil drilling. Studies show that deforestation rates are up to three times lower in Indigenous-managed territories — proof that Indigenous stewardship is one of the most effective tools for protecting the planet’s lungs. Brazil has pledged to include a record 1,000 Indigenous delegates at COP30 and to broadcast parts of the summit in Indigenous languages. But inclusion isn’t enough without influence. As Shuar leader Juan Carlos Jintiach put it: “We have been seeing all of these changes, and we are the most affected. We want to present solutions.” The Amazon’s health shapes the climate right around the world — influencing rainfall, crop yields, and global weather extremes. Protecting Indigenous rights in Brazil isn’t just a moral cause; it’s climate action in its purest form. Explore more COP30 updates from RMetS 10 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 6, 2025A pivotal moment: why COP30 matters more than ever nathan.reece@r… 06 November 2025 The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) is hosted by Brazil in the city of Belém. This landmark COP arrives at a moment of heightened urgency — climate science, global geopolitics, socio-economic vulnerability and ecosystems are all signalling that the next few years are decisive. Significance of COP30  COP30 marks three decades of UNFCCC negotiations and comes ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement (COP21 in 2015) offering a moment to reflect on what has been achieved and what remains to be done. This COP takes place in Brazil, in the Amazon region, symbolically and practically linking climate negotiations to forests, biodiversity, indigenous rights, and nature-based solutions. Belém places global climate action squarely in the context of one of the world’s most critical ecosystems. The host country’s agenda emphasises adaptation, resilience, forests, sustainable supply-chains and biodiversity protection which reflects the reality that mitigation alone is no longer enough. Looking back: the Paris Agreement, progress and the journey so far Ten years ago, in December 2015, nearly 200 nations met in Paris (COP21) and adopted the Paris Agreement which was a historic moment in climate diplomacy. The accord committed countries to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C.” It introduced a framework of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a five-year review cycle, and a recognition of adaptation, finance and equity. There have been some notable highlights since 2015: Clean energy deployment has accelerated, cost curves of renewables and storage have improved, giving hope for decarbonisation. More governments, cities and corporations have adopted net-zero targets; in many places the climate agenda has become mainstream. The narrative around climate action has shifted: from awareness and promises to implementation and accountability-oriented discussion. However, the picture is also sobering: According to a UNFCCC review: “the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement”. Many countries have failed to submit updated, ambition-raising NDCs on time. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, due to human induced climate change. So, the decade since Paris has seen meaningful progress, but not nearly enough to guarantee that the 1.5 °C goal remains feasible — and COP30 will need to focus less on pledges and more on robust, tangible implementation. What to expect from COP30 Against that backdrop, what might COP30 deliver, and what is especially on the table given the Brazilian context? Key themes and expectations: COP30 is scheduled for 10–21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil. The host has framed an ambitious agenda: forests, oceans, biodiversity; energy, industry, transport; agriculture and food systems; cities, infrastructure and water; human and social development; and cross-cutting issues. Brazil’s presidency emphasises adaptation and resilience in a world already facing climate disasters. This includes restoring mangroves, climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems etc. There is attention on scaling up climate finance. One landmark aim is mobilising many billions – for example, a roadmap to raise US$1.3 trillion by 2030 for developing countries. Expect emphasis on nature-based solutions and biodiversity protection, leveraging the Amazon as both symbol and substance. Breaking with the norm from recent COPs, the two-day world leaders’ summit was a few days before COP30 begins from Thursday 6th November. Removing it from the first two days of proceedings may leave more time for negotiations to progress without the distraction of various world leaders and figureheads such as Sir Keir Starmer and Prince William. What outcomes might we see? At COP30, feasible outcomes could include: Updated NDCs or clear pathways for the next cycle of ambition especially in countries that are lagging. Clear mechanisms or finance vehicles to translate adaptation/resilience pledges into investment and infrastructure notably with nature-based dimensions. Enhanced policy linkage between mitigation and adaptation: e.g. forest conservation counting toward both carbon and biodiversity goals. A stronger global signal: that climate diplomacy is shifting from debating targets to delivering solutions, especially in frontline regions like the Amazon and the Global South. Possibly binding or semi-binding mechanisms around implementation, transparency, and linking finance flows. Why is the fact that COP30 is in Brazil significant? Hosting in the Amazon region visually underscores that climate change is not a future threat, it is here and now and ecosystems like the Amazon are both victims and allies of climate action. Brazil brings both a forest-rich context and an ‘Emerging Market’ perspective: it can help shift the narrative from a developed-vs-developing dichotomy to one of global co-responsibility, especially for nature-rich countries. The venue may help elevate issues of justice, indigenous rights, ecosystem protection and adaptation in developing regions rather than purely industrial decarbonisation alone. 6 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 5, 2025Climate Education at the Heart of Curriculum and Assessment Review kathryn.wolak 05 November 2025 The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) welcomes the publication of the Curriculum and Assessment Review (CAR) report and the Government’s response, which place climate education firmly at the centre of the future curriculum.  We are particularly pleased to see the explicit recognition of the need to strengthen climate literacy, alongside the related competencies of digital, media, and financial literacy. Together, these skills will help equip learners for careers in industries that support both the limitation of global warming and our adaptation to life in a changing climate.  At RMetS, we know that learning in every subject has a part to play in developing climate literacy – as evidenced by our Curriculum for Climate Literacy, launched earlier this year. The foundations in science, geography, and citizenship underpin the application of climate understanding across all areas of learning, and we welcome the CAR report’s recognition of this.  Teachers already recognise the urgency of preparing their students with the knowledge, rich understanding, and skills needed for a sustainable, green economy. This report provides a strong mandate to begin delivering on that vision now, while awaiting implementation of the revised curriculum.  To realise this ambition, teachers must be supported with professional development opportunities and high-quality classroom and assessment resources. RMetS will continue to play its part – working with educators, curriculum bodies, and partners across the UK to ensure that all young people leave school with the climate literacy they need to thrive in a warming world.  5 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 4, 2025The Royal Meteorological Society and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) kathryn.wolak 04 November 2025 The Royal Meteorological Society is committed to supporting the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals in order to help advance the world towards a more sustainable Future for all.    What is Sustainable Development    While there have been many attempts to define Sustainable Development, there is one definition that has become widely used and accepted, that of the Brundtland Commission of the United Nations in 1987:   “sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”   At the 2005 World Summit it was noted that this requires the reconciliation of environmental, social and economic demands – the “three pillars” of sustainability.     What are the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)   In the words of the United Nations “the Sustainable Development Goals are the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all. They address the global challenges we face, including those related to poverty, inequality, climate change, environmental degradation, peace and justice. The 17 Goals, are all interconnected, and in order to leave no one behind, it is important that we achieve them all by 2030.” The SDGs were adopted by all United Nations (UN) members in 2015. Underneath the 17 Goals sit 169 targets to measure progress towards achieving the Goals.     The 17 Goals are as follows: SDG 1 – End poverty in all its forms everywhere. SDG 2 – End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. SDG 3 – Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages. SDG 4 – Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all. SDG 5 – Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. SDG 6 – Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. SDG 7 – Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. SDG 8 – Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all. SDG 9 – Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation. SDG 10 – Reduce inequality within and among countries. SDG 11 – Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. SDG 12 – Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns. SDG 13 – Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts by regulating emissions and promoting developments in renewable energy. SDG 14 – Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development. SDG 15 is to: “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss. SDG 16 is to: “Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels. SDG 17 is to: “Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development. The full wording of the SDGs is often shortened and expressed in the form of the following graphic:      Weather and climate impact all SDGs   Weather and climate affects just about every aspect of people’s lives and therefore virtually everything RMetS does, through its programs and operations, helps to achieve the SDGs. The rapidly increasing private sector in the provision of weather and climate services is testament to the increased recognition of the value weather forecasts and climate information can bring to a wide range of public and private sector organisations. Weather and seasonal forecasts help farmers grow the food we need more efficiently (SDG2) which in turn leads to reducing poverty (SDG1). Weather warnings of storms and floods save many lives (SDG3). Education in weather and climate at all stages of education is vital in so many ways, not least in understanding the risks of climate change (SDG4). Weather and climate have been clearly shown to impact more on women and the poor exacerbating gender and other inequalities (SDG5), (SDG9). Climate information of rainfall is critical in planning the siting of dams and reservoirs (SDG6) as is information on wind climatology in planning future wind farms (SDG7). Our work in accreditation helps to raise standards in weather forecasting and climate research helping to provide high quality jobs (SDG8). Most industries, infrastructure and communities, including those within cities, are critically affected by the weather and climate (SDG9), (SDG10), SDG11). Improved weather forecasts help farmers and supermarkets produce and deliver the right amount of stock at the right time to reduce food waste (SDG12). SDG 13, Climate action, requires the most reliable projections of future climate on which to base decision making and all actions to conserve, protect and restore ecosystems below water or on land are critically dependent on the weather and climate (SDG14), (SDG15). It has been shown that weather and climate, for example through floods or failure of crops have been contributing factors in major conflicts, such as the Arab Spring (SDG16). And finally, the weather and climate community, including RMetS are important players in partnerships for development around the world (SDG17). These are just a few simple, illustrative examples of how weather and climate have an important role to play in the implementation of the SDGs, but in fact they are inextricably linked.   So, while it is clear that everything RMetS in some way supports SDG implementation there is always more we can do and RMetS is committed to improve and expand its efforts in support of the SDGs.   RMetS Mission and Strategic Objectives   Much of the information presented below and in the following section is extracted from the Strategic Plan of the Society, where you can find more information on RMetS and its programs: https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/RMetS-2024-2026-Strategic-Plan.pdf   Mission  The Society’s mission is to advance the understanding of weather and climate and its application for the benefit of all.   The Society’s mission has a wide remit that looks to support people’s understanding, interest and enthusiasm in weather and climate, whether they are research scientists, enthusiasts, practitioners, students, teachers or members of the general public. It goes further, supporting the development of high-quality science, the next generation of scientists and operational meteorologists, professional development of individuals, accrediting further and higher education courses, informing policy and supporting learning in weather and climate through education and outreach activities.     Strategic Objectives  The strategic objectives define how the Society will achieve its mission in the long term. The Society’s strategic plan will be centred on FIVE strategic objectives.   1. To strengthen the scientific study and application of weather and climate, and related disciplines, through publications, events, partnerships, awards and training.  2. To support, develop and empower weather and climate scientists through professional accreditation, career advice, communication, provision of information and networking.   3. To engage and inspire everyone in weather and climate through events, volunteering, communication, local centres, special interest groups, public engagement and about the work of the Society.  4. To educate and inform society about weather and climate through the support and promotion of weather and climate science in education, outreach and providing public information.  5. To be an independent voice of authority, advice and advocacy for the science and the profession through the promotion of weather and climate science information in policy and decision-making and its relevance to society.   The Society’s mission is to advance the understanding of weather and climate and its application for the benefit of all.   The Society’s mission has a wide remit that looks to support people’s understanding, interest and enthusiasm in weather and climate, whether they are research scientists, enthusiasts, practitioners, students, teachers or members of the general public. It goes further, supporting the development of high-quality science, the next generation of scientists and operational meteorologists, professional development of individuals, accrediting further and higher education courses, informing policy and supporting learning in weather and climate through education and outreach activities.     Cross-cutting Priorities  The Society’s strategic cross-cutting priorities ensure the Society has the capacity and capability to achieve its strategic objectives. This includes having secure and diverse sources of income, a skilled and motivated workforce, strong strategic partnerships, sound governance, excellent marketing and communication activities, effective use of IT resources and an active group of volunteers across all our activities. In addition, the Society will prioritise and integrate diversity and inclusion and our net-zero commitment.     Programmes of Work The Society’s strategic plan will be achieved through programmes of work. The programmes are as follows:   Membership Development   Events   Scientific Publishing   Education   Professional Development and Accreditation   Science Engagement   Support Activities      How does RMetS support the achievement of the SDGs This section gives examples of some of the ways that RMetS directly contributes to the implementation of the SDGs. Again, it is just illustrative and is far from comprehensive.   Events The aim of RMetS events program is to advance the science and its application of weather and climate through delivering face-to-face and online events to a growing and increasingly diverse audience from across the meteorological community and other related disciplines. The Society normally hosts between 50 to 70 events a year, including conferences, and Special Interest Groups, Local Centres and National meetings. Most of these events are run in partnership with others and are free to attend – hosting a blend of virtual, public and live-streamed events.   Examples of events run this year include extreme weather events (SDG3) (SDG13), climate resilient energy systems (SDG7) (SDG13), sea level rise (SDG14) (SDG9), how the weather affects water resources in SE England (SDG6), air quality (SDG3), hydrogen energy (SDG7), gardening and climate change (SDG2), (SDG15), weather related hazards (SDG3) (SDG9), and aviation meteorology (SDG3). The Society runs two major conferences each year, the RMetS Annual Weather and Climate Conference and the Early Career and Student Conference. The Annual Weather and Climate Conference brings together academics, practitioners and industry to exchange ideas and knowledge. Advancing the science contributes to many SDGs, not least in helping to provide the scientific justification for SDG 13. The Early Career and Student Conference provides an opportunity for students and young scientists to present their work in a friendly environment, providing them with the experience and skills they will need as they progress their careers, directly contributing to SDG4 & SDG8. Masterclasses that are held to provide support for professionals working in weather and climate, and its operational applications who wish to remain up to date on recent scientific developments in the field (SDG8).     Scientific publishing Scientific publishing is one of the Society’s strengths and aims to deliver a high-quality portfolio of journals, a book programme and support scientific knowledge management and promotion of the science.   Most, if not all, the papers published in what is a diverse set of journals and publications help to advance knowledge of weather and climate and hence help to advance a wide range of the SDGs, for example (SDG13), (SDG14), (SDG15). RMetS is moving towards making all of its Journals Open Access and hence freely available to all (SDG10).     Education The Society aspires that every student should leave school with basic weather and climate literacy (SDG4). It also promotes meteorology, as a science and profession, to encourage a more diverse student base to consider a career in meteorology (SDG5), (SDG10). The Society endeavours to maintain and raise the profile of weather and climate by responding to Government and Exam Board consultations and develop resources to support new curricula and exam specifications. MetLink is the Society’s education website, www.MetLink.org, and provides weather and climate resources aimed at primary and secondary school teachers.   But RMetS supports lifelong educational needs, from the youngest to the oldest, from those with little or no previous knowledge to some of the world’s leading experts, from enthusiasts and amateurs to professionals and all of them support SDG4.     Accreditation The aim of the Society’s accreditation activities is to build a stronger meteorological profession through relevant, recognised and valued schemes. The Society is recognised as the professional body for meteorology in the UK, and offers independent recognition and regulation around professional development for meteorology and meteorologists. The Society defines the scope of its accreditation activity as recognising excellence in people and in organisations and their continuing professional development. In this way those working in the field of weather and climate undertake continuing professional development and have their skills independently recognised strengthening both their own skills but raising those of the sector as a whole (SDG8).     Science engagement The aim of the Society’s science engagement activities is to advance the understanding of weather and climate outside of UK formal education settings and increase awareness of the science and its applications through collaboration with science and communication partners to maximise reach and share resources. The Society recognises the importance of engaging in conversations and providing evidence-based information about weather and climate. By being an active participant in these discussions the Society can provide constructive contributions that represent the interests of meteorology whilst increasing its visibility as an independent, authoritative voice on weather and climate.   The Society is actively involved in Government on areas around weather and climate change, including providing advice and expertise that helps inform policy makers as well as authoring statements and briefing papers (SDG13) (SDG17). Each year the Society is involved with more than 150 media enquiries for TV, radio, print and online reports, (SDG4). These often occur during times of extreme weather (SDG3), to ensure the public are both informed and engaged with the latest weather and climate news stories.   Awards and prizes The Royal Meteorological Society recognises excellence in meteorology and related disciplines through its Awards and Prizes. The independent recognition these prizes bring to individuals is valuable to them in their careers, SDG(8).     Support activities, operations and practices The Society is also committed to contributing to the achievement of the SDGs through its day-to-day activities, operations and practices.   The Society undertakes a number of support activities including: support to the headquarters team through training and development (SDG8), building maintenance (SDG9) and office management.  The Society has also recently introduced Private Health and Salary Sacrifice schemes for staff (SDG8). The Society has made a Net Zero commitment that aims to raise awareness of sustainability and pathways to net zero and to lead by example through our commitment to becoming a net zero organisation (SDG13). Through a range of activities including replacing an old gas boiler with heat pumps powered by renewable electricity from a verified supplier, the Society has met its commitment to achieving net zero direct emissions (Scope 1 and Scope 2) where we have direct control by 2025. The Society will also work towards net zero indirect emissions (Scope 3) by 2030, subject to full feasibility assessments. A large component of the Society’s indirect (Scope 3) greenhouse gas emissions comes as a result of our scientific publishing activities. We have therefore initiated a Pathway to Net Zero project with our publishers, Wiley.   The Society aims to lead by example and encourage the meteorological community to be both diverse and inclusive making the best use of the talent that exists in all parts of society to provide access to the world of science, technology and the profession of meteorology for all (SDG5), (SDG8), (SDG10). The Society’s Diversity and Inclusion plan embeds the importance of our diversity and inclusion strategy in everything the Society does and aims to deliver on a progression framework.   The Society has changed the way it provides food and refreshments at events to be vegetarian (SDG3), provided by local providers (SDG8) with strong sustainability credentials (SDG12). This year we introduced bamboo badges, replacing the older plastic badges. These badges are made in the UK, reusable, and the inserts are recyclable. The badges have been an enormous su345cess with our event delegation with comments not only about their appearance but their environmental impact as well (SDG3).     Summary Because of the all-pervasive impact of weather and climate throughout society virtually all RMetS does contributes to the achievement of the SDGs in some way. As part of the development of its next Strategic Plan, the process for which begins in late 2025, the Society will seek ways to further integrate the SDGs into its activities. Without pre-empting this process, ways of doing this could include: 1. The adoption of a tool to measure the Society’s impact across each SDG. There are several tools available for doing this an example of which is shown below.       2. The development of action plans for each of the Society’s programmes of work, its support activities, operations and practices.   3. A programme of engagement with key stakeholders, partners, suppliers and members to, if necessary, make them aware of the SDGs and then to seek ways to involve them in ways the Society can increase the positive impact it has on the SDGs. In summary, the Society will continue to seek ways to maximise its contribution to the achievement of the SDGs in order to help the world towards a more sustainable future for all.    5 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 4, 2025New Co-Editors in Chief of the International Journal of Climatology kathryn.wolak 04 November 2025 We would like to update you on some changes to the International Journal of Climatology Editorial team. We are sad to announce that Bill Collins stepped down as Editor in Chief for IJoC on October 31st at the end of his term. Bill joined the journal in 2021 and during that time has contributed greatly to the development of the journal and will be greatly missed. Bill is succeeded by Chris White who has already been a fantastic support to the journal as a Deputy Editor in Chief over the last four and a half years. Chris and Enric Aguilar will make a great Co Editor in Chief team going forward. Taking Chris’s position on the Senior Editorial team is Thanos Athanassios, a former winner of the International Journal of Climatology’s Editor Award. Congratulations to Chris and Thanos for your new roles on the journal and good luck to Bill in all your future endeavours. There have also been some changes to the Editorial Board team. Two of our longstanding AEs have chosen to step down from their roles at the end of 2025 – John Abatzoglou and Ian McKendry. We are so grateful for John and Ian’s work on the journal over their many years at IJoC and wish them all the best. We would like to welcome the following Associate Editors: Dr Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan (Brunel University, UK), and Dr Masoud Rostami (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany), who both started on September 1st, Dr Thomas Ballinger (University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA) and Dr Oleg Skrynyk (Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine) who both started on October 1st, and Dr Pushp Tiwari (University of Hertfordshire, UK) who started on November 1st. To see our full Editorial Board and International Advisory Board, please visit the journal website. 4 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
November 4, 2025New Geoscience Data Journal Co Editors in Chief kathryn.wolak 04 November 2025 We are pleased to announce our new Geoscience Data Journal (GDJ) co Editors in Chief, Dr Anirudh Prabhu and Professor Qingxiang Li. Dr Anirudh Prabhu and Professor Qingxiang Li succeed Professor Katherine Royse and Professor Jian Peng. We thank Kate and Jian for their hard work and contribution to GDJ and welcome Anirudh and Qingxiang to the GDJ team.   Dr Anirudh Prabhu, started with the journal in February. He is a Research Scientist & Principal Investigator at the Earth and Planets Laboratory in the Carnegie Institution for Science. A data & information scientist by training, Dr Prabhu’s research focuses on advancing data science by developing and applying analytics, and machine learning techniques. He is on the Advisory Board for the Interdisciplinary Earth Data Alliance and has been a member of the Data Science Team of both the Deep Carbon Observatory and the 4D initiative since 2016.   Joining Anirudh from September, is Professor Qingxiang Li, a Distinguished Yixian Scholar at Sun Yat-Sen University specializing in climate change observation, physics, and uncertainty studies. Professor Li has received numerous awards and honours, including the Zou Jingmeng Meteorological Science and Technology Talent Award, recognition as a leading scientific and technological talent by the China Meteorological Administration, and the Distinguished Expert title in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.   Find out more about the Geoscience Data Journal. 4 November 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 31, 2025New Opportunity to Join RMetS Council: We’re Looking for an Early Career Researcher! kathryn.wolak 31 October 2025 We have an exciting new volunteering opportunity at the Royal Meteorological Society! A brand-new position has been created on the RMetS Council – the group that helps steer the direction of the Society – and it’s designed especially for an Early Career Researcher. We want to make sure the voices and ideas of those just starting out in their meteorological careers are heard right at the top level. This is your chance to help shape the future of the Society and make a real difference in the community.   What does being on the RMetS Council mean? Our Council members are also Trustees of the Society. That means they help oversee our work, make sure we’re staying true to our charitable aims, and guide our long-term plans. It’s a great opportunity to: Get experience in leadership and strategy. Help shape the direction of the Society. Meet and work with people from across the weather and climate world. Make sure the needs and perspectives of early career researchers are part of every conversation.   What would you do? As a member of the Council, you’d: Attend three Council meetings each year. Get involved in Society projects and events. Act as an ambassador for RMetS, helping promote what we do and who we are. Be the voice for early career researchers. Join us for the Annual General Meeting (usually in May or June). It’s a voluntary role, but one that offers lots of professional growth, connection, and insight into how a learned society like RMetS runs.   Interested? Although nominations officially closed on 17 October, this position is still open. So, if you’re an early career meteorologist who’d like to get involved – or just want to find out more before deciding – we’d love to hear from you. Please contact Liz at info@rmets.org for more information. 31 October 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 30, 2025Standard Chartered Weather Photographer of the Year 2025 Winners Announced nathan.reece@r… 30 October 2025 The Royal Meteorological Society has announced the winners of this year’s Standard Chartered Weather Photographer of the Year Competition, celebrating ten years of the competition. Chosen from over 4,000 images received from photographers from 84 countries – the judges’ winners were chosen by an international panel of experts from the fields of weather and climate, photography and journalism, including members of the ITV Weather team.   In addition, the public voted for their favourite. View the Winners’ Gallery. Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, commented: “A huge congratulations to all our winners and runners-up – the standard of the photographs submitted this year were incredibly high. The images showcase the weather and climate in its pure beauty and intensity extremely well. From the increasing effects of storms in Texas, US, to a rare viewpoint of a full circular rainbow, we are shown the power of the weather, through extremely talented photographers’ eyes. We have images which tell the ever-urgent message that climate change is having a deep impact on a global level, acting as a reminder that vital action is needed. Thank you to our partners who have made this competition in its special tenth year, possible.” Marisa Drew, Chief Sustainability Officer at Standard Chartered, commented:   “This year’s winning images showcase the incredible talent of the professional and amateur photographers whose work highlights the emotional connection photography creates in raising awareness of our changing climate. We’re proud to support this competition, which reinforces the urgent need to adapt, respond and build resilience to climate impacts across our markets. Congratulations to all the winners and runners-up and thank you to everyone who entered.”   View the Winners’ Gallery 30 October 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 29, 2025Turning science into action: RMetS achieves major emissions reduction milestone nathan.reece@r… 29 October 2025 The Royal Meteorological Society is pleased to share that, after more than 15 years of work to reduce our environmental impact, we have now reduced our Scope 1 and 2 emissions – those directly under our control – by more than 90% to just 0.3tCO2e (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent). While Net Zero is defined as a 90%+ reduction across all scopes, we are pleased to have already achieved this level of reduction in our Scope 1 and 2 emissions ahead of schedule. This represents a significant milestone on our journey to full Net Zero and reflects the strong encouragement of our members, who have consistently called for climate science to be matched by credible action. To help us measure progress with confidence, we have worked with PlanetMark, who benchmark and verify our carbon reporting against science-based targets. Their independent certification has given us the assurance that our reductions are both robust and meaningful. The journey has involved many small but important steps over the years – from installing solar panels at our headquarters, to moving to a 100% renewable energy supplier, removing our gas boiler, and divesting from fossil fuels. We have also worked hard to reduce our energy consumption, waste and materials including paper. These changes have been embedded into the way the Society operates and governed with the support of our Trustees. Prof Liz Bentley FRMetS, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society said,  “Achieving this significant reduction in our Scope 1 and 2 emissions is just one of the ways we’re aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals and the need to take responsibility to act on climate change. By reducing our operational emissions, we’re putting the science – and our members’ values – into practice.” The work does not stop here. The biggest challenge for us, as it is for many organisations, lies in reducing our Scope 3 emissions, particularly in publishing, investments, and events which collectively make up 85% of our Scope 3 emissions. Our focus in the last few years has been on these areas, working closely with suppliers and partners to reduce emissions further. Our goal is to achieve full Net Zero across all scopes by 2030. We are grateful to our members and staff whose values and commitment have helped bring us to this point. This achievement shows what can be done when science and action are aligned, and we look forward to taking the next steps together. Find out more about our net zero journey 29 October 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 22, 2025Three yellow weather warnings issued as wet and blustery conditions expected on Thursday Storm Benjamin could batter the UK with heavy downpours and winds of more than 70mph this week, forecasters have said. The Met Office has issued three yellow weather warnings over possible disruption, flooding, power cuts and damage to buildings in a number of areas on Thursday from the storm, which has been named by Météo-France. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 21, 2025Climate Science in 2050: A view from the bridge kathryn.wolak 21 October 2025 Picture the scene: it is 2050 and you find yourself Chief Scientist at the bridge of the Planet Earth Climate Monitoring Centre. You look around your Virtual Reality Earth Information System (VIREIS) and observe with some satisfaction that the rate at which carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing has slowed considerably over the past twenty years, as has the rate of increase in global average temperatures – especially over the last decade.   You zoom in to take a closer look at a few regions. There is a cold spot over the North Atlantic, which your system confirms has been caused by a 30% slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 2020.  The ocean around Antarctica remains worryingly warm; on the other hand, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting more slowly and appears to be more stable than some had feared.        From the Turbulent 2020s to a Global Turnaround In the past year – typical of almost every year now – there have been record-breaking extreme events on every continent, some shattering previous records. Heatwaves have become a particular menace, taking lives and destroying livelihoods. Unprecedented droughts, wildfires, and floods have also proved extremely damaging, although innovative adaptation measures have greatly reduced the damaging impacts on people and Nature. Indeed, the progress in effective adaptation, alongside the successful mitigation of climate change enabled by the remarkably rapid energy transition, has been a major success of the last two decades. This was a big turn-around, following the tricky 2020s. Ultimately the collective demand from global public opinion, aided by the compelling economics of renewable energy, brought about the changes required. You turn your attention to the future. The system shows how temperatures and many other aspects of climate are expected to stabilise over the coming decades. Global sea level rise will continue for much longer, of course, but at a rate much slower than had been feared, enabling many more options for coastal communities. All things considered, the outlook is considerably brighter than you had expected 25 years ago when you began your career in climate science.   How Climate Science Keeps Us Informed and Prepared This isn’t, of course, quite how things will turn out. But how much of it might prove accurate? In particular, how will climate science, and the role of climate scientists, have changed by 2050? Let us start with considering how the world will have changed. Unless there are major unexpected events (e.g. a series of major volcanic eruptions, very significant climate intervention) the climate of 2050 will be warmer than that of today, possibly by up to 0.5oC or even more, with all the associated consequences that this entails1. There will, therefore, be strong ongoing demand for climate science, data and intelligence from governments, businesses and people: To quantify the state of the climate/Earth system and the rate of ongoing changes at global, regional and local scales. To understand and explain (“attribute”) the causes (typically multiple) of specific observed changes, events and impacts, and their implications for the future. To anticipate future changes in the years and decades ahead, to inform risk assessments and investment and planning decisions. To provide early warning for extreme and high impact events, so that lives and livelihoods can be protected, and for abrupt or potentially irreversible changes in the climate system. To design and evaluate options for reducing future climate change through mitigation measures, and for reducing the negative impacts of climate change through adaptation and building resilience. These demands will exist in some form in every country and community in the world, albeit always with specific local needs and priorities1,2.   AI and the Future of Climate Modelling  A next question is how will the scientific capabilities to monitor, model and predict climate have developed by 2050? The likely most important area of technology innovation concerns the role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML). To begin with monitoring, we can be confident there will be an enduring need for both remotely sensed (notably from space) and in situ observations. The growth in observations from autonomous platforms is likely to accelerate, as is the role of diverse networks of distributed sensors. AI/ML developments will provide new ways to extract the maximum and most decision relevant information from a likely unprecedented diversity of measurements.  We can also hope they might provide a near complete picture of the current state of the climate system – the basis of our imagined VIREIS – including timely evidence on the impact of climate actions, both for mitigation and adaptation. In the area of modelling, AI/ML developments will also be very influential but (along with many other climate scientists) I anticipate an indefinite requirement for physics-based climate and Earth System models as well. The reason is – because future climate cannot be observed – physics-based models and associated process understanding are fundamental to confidence and trust in longer term climate predictions and projections.  (And the importance of trust should not be underestimated.) Putting this another way, we will never have sufficient observation-based data to adequately train a purely data-driven climate or Earth system model to produce reliable long-term projections; such models perform poorly when pushed far outside the applicability of their training data.   But this isn’t to say that AI/ML approaches cannot add a great deal of value to climate modelling.  For example, they are already showing potential value for problems such as: novel parameterisation of unresolved processes; extended range initialised predictions3; model calibration and tuning; downscaling4; and ensemble generation.  For many applications, hybrid physics-ML approaches are likely to offer the best solution. AI/ML approaches will also have a central role to play in enabling the maximum possible benefit to be derived from the computational resources of the day.  The allocation tension between resolution, complexity, duration, and ensembles will not be solved, but it should be helped.  We can anticipate further advances in the resolution of physics-based models, but many processes will remain resolved only partially or not at all, and – unless there is a major and unexpected technological advance – these simulations will remain expensive so will have to be useful carefully and selectively.  The same is true for simulations of the more complete Earth System including the carbon cycle and other processes important to the longer-term evolution of climate (e.g. ice sheets). AI/ML advances should help us target these expensive simulations so they add most value.  For some applications AI/ML based emulators will likely suffice, although these will have to be trained at least in part on traditional physics-based model simulations.  There are interesting ideas already in development about the potential for constructive co-evolution between simulation and emulation capabilities5. Another feature of VIREIS is that it will exploit AI/ML methods to combine observational and model data to provide a seamless integrated capability for monitoring, attribution and prediction of climate on all scales from global to local.  This will realise the vision of the WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change6. It will also provide early warnings both of individual extreme weather events (and their impacts), and of the potential for rapid, unexpected, or irreversible changes in the climate system, including possible tipping points7.   The next area of climate science application is the design and evaluation of options for mitigating (i.e. reducing) future climate change, for example by cutting greenhouse gas emissions through accelerating the energy transition or through changes in land use.   To meet this challenge, climate scientists will be working closely with experts and data from many other fields including engineering, economics and behavioural science (building on current initiatives such as https://ukncsp.org/).  Data and models may be integrated into new forms of digital twin that enable a range of future options to be explored and evaluated considering a wide range of metrics including co-benefits and trade-offs.  Also relevant here are potential developments in climate intervention8, both Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and the more controversial Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) approaches.  How these approaches develop, and whether there is pressure for them to be deployed, is highly uncertain.   By 2050 (and hopefully much sooner!) adaptation to climate change, or more broadly “designed climate resilience” will be a mainstream feature of all major investment and planning decisions.   Here again climate scientists will be working with experts and data from many other disciplines to co-design and co-evaluate resilient solutions to challenges as diverse as: energy infrastructure, transport networks, health services, water supply, agriculture and food production, and global supply chains. AI innovations will no doubt enable development of much more powerful and user-friendly decision support tools. Another dimension of the 2050 landscape we might briefly consider is the future of international institutions such as UNFCCC and IPCC.  Notwithstanding current challenges, it seems clear that the need for something like UNFCCC is not going away.   It will no doubt evolve as it has done before (e.g. bringing in new mechanisms such as the Global Stocktake) and perhaps change in more radical ways. One area where I would like to see more attention is the need for a comprehensive and regular global assessment of the climate risks that are avoidable through effective mitigation action.  It seems absurd that the world does not have such a resource (at least not a remotely up to date one) for such a globally important problem.  As I discussed in Sutton (2019)9, whilst the IPCC provides a lot of relevant information, it does not deliver a risk assessment because it is not designed to do so.   As I also argued in the same paper, I believe there is considerable room to improve the process for scoping the major IPCC Assessment cycles to ensure the reports are more sharply focused on the evidence relevant to policy. Of course, AI/ML developments may revolutionise the whole process of literature review and evidence synthesis in ways that can’t yet be fully anticipated.        The Evolving Role of the Climate Scientist Lastly, I would like to return to the question of what is the future for climate science and climate scientists?  It should be clear from the above that I expect the demand for climate scientists to only grow.  What will they be doing?  In the first place, they will be central to designing, evaluating and improving the core observational, modelling and exploitation capabilities required to develop a future VIREIS and to deliver to the requirements 1-5 I stated above.  On all these tasks they will be benefiting from powerful AI assistants to optimise designs, interpret evidence, and respond rapidly to unexpected events. Many climate scientists – likely the majority – will be experts in working across disciplines, because they will be directly involved in designing and evaluating solutions to climate challenges and delivering climate services across society. What about fundamental research? The good news for those who are stimulated especially by scientific curiosity, is that the need for fundamental research will endure. The fact is, with the industrial revolution, we began an experiment to perturb an enormously complex system of which we have a very incomplete understanding. So I fully expect the climate system to throw up surprises in the decades ahead, and these surprises will create some of the opportunities for curious climate scientists to further advance human understanding, to the benefit of all.   References IPCC, 2022: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.001 My Climate Risk WCRP Lighthouse Activity Chris Kent, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Doug Smith, Steven C. Hardiman, Tom Dunstan, Oliver Watt-Meyer,”Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data”, in press, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025 🔗 https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.23953 Kendon, E. J., Addison, H., Doury, A., Somot, S., Watson, P. A. G., Booth, B. B. B., Coppola, E., Gutiérrez, J. M., Murphy, J., & Scullion, C. (2025). Potential for machine learning emulators to augment regional climate simulations in provision of local climate change information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2024 🔗 DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0114.   Peter Van Katwyk, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Helene Hewitt, Karianne J. Bergen, Rewiring climate modeling with machine learning emulators, shortly to be submitted, 2025 Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change WCRP Lighthouse activity; Findell, K. L., Sutton, R., et al (2023) A Call to Action: Developing the Capability to Explain and Predict Earth System Change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(7), 501-504. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.A Safe Landing Climates WCRP Lighthouse Activity Research to Inform Decisions about Climate Intervention WCRP Lighthouse Activity Sutton, BAMS, 2019: Climate Science needs to take Risk Assessment much more seriously, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/100/9/bams-d-18-0280.1.xml  27 October 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 20, 2025State of the Climate Report for the UK Energy Sector 2024-25  kathryn.wolak 20 October 2025 The Royal Meteorological Society’s latest State of the Climate for the UK Energy Sector report, supported by global infrastructure consultancy AECOM, highlights how weather events between April 2024 and March 2025 significantly impacted electricity generation, demand, and infrastructure across the UK.  The report identifies two key impacts: periods where weather conditions led to significant discrepancies between renewable generation and demand, and periods where extreme weather conditions affected energy infrastructure.  In the first instance, in November 2024, cold, calm, and cloudy conditions led to an extended period of lower-than-average wind and solar generation, coupled with high energy demand. Similar conditions occurred on 8 and 20 January 2025. On 8 January in particular, this resulted in spikes in both the real-time and day-ahead price of electricity as the system worked to balance generation and demand across the network. A combination of interconnection with other European networks and alternative sources of generation ensured that supplies were not disrupted.  In August 2024, high winds and sunny skies led to a surplus of wind and solar generation, and there were several periods where wind farms were paid to curtail their production to ensure the electricity network remained balanced.  Impact on energy infrastructure came mostly from the seven named storms the UK faced during the report period. The most destructive storms were Storm Darragh on 6–7 December 2024 (2.3m customers disconnected in Wales and central and northern England) and Storm Éowyn on 24 January 2025 (over 1m customers disconnected, mostly in Scotland and NE England), with most faults being related to damage caused by high winds or flooding. Increases in faults from precipitation which came from extreme summer rainfall events are also noted, and two periods of high thunderstorm activity in May and September 2024 across Britain also contributed to localised outages due to lightning strikes.  Finally, the report provides an assessment of how a potential future electricity network with increased wind and solar generation capacity would cope with these weather events. It shows there would still need to be reliance on other sources of generation beyond wind and solar to provide adequate electricity to meet demand for the periods of cool, cloudy, and low-wind conditions seen in November and January.  Professor Liz Bentley FRMetS, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “As our changing climate makes extreme weather events more frequent, the impacts on industry, and the risks to business and society, are becoming increasingly significant. The Royal Meteorological Society leads in bridging the gap between research and the real-world application of meteorology, helping organisations make decisions grounded in evidence. We’re delighted to have been supported by AECOM on this report. Collaborations like this demonstrate how science can actively support a resilient, climate-ready economy.”  Sally Vivian, Sustainability Advisory Growth Lead, AECOM, said: “Understanding how weather events affect our energy systems is vital for building resilience in the face of a changing climate. This report provides valuable insights into how weather has impacted power generation and energy network reliability over the past year and will help guide the future planning and maintenance of energy infrastructure. AECOM is proud to partner with the Royal Meteorological Society on this work, combining climate science and industry expertise to better support and inform the UK’s energy sector.”   An Executive Summary and the Full Report is available from the Royal Meteorological Society’s website: https://www.rmets.org/publications/reports-and-briefing-papers/energy/state-climate-uk-energy-sector-2024-25    Notes to Editors  The Executive Summary and Full Report will be available from 10AM (BST) on Monday 20 October 2025.  About the Royal Meteorological Society  The Royal Meteorological Society is the leading independent expert in weather and climate.  With a Royal Charter and as the only awarding body for Meteorologists, we are recognised as the leading independent authority for all things weather and climate.  Guided by our charitable purpose and a commitment to excellence, our mission is to advance the understanding of weather and climate and its applications for the benefit of everyone.  By championing groundbreaking research, providing educational support, and nurturing a dynamic community across the UK and beyond, we unite existing and aspiring weather and climate professionals, organisations, academics, and enthusiasts for collaboration and innovation. Learn more at www.rmets.org    About AECOM  AECOM is the global infrastructure leader, committed to delivering a better world. As a trusted professional services firm powered by deep technical abilities, we solve our clients’ complex challenges in water, environment, energy, transportation and buildings. Our teams partner with public- and private-sector clients to create innovative, sustainable and resilient solutions throughout the project lifecycle – from advisory, planning, design and engineering to program and construction management. AECOM is a Fortune 500 firm that had revenue of $16.1 billion in fiscal year 2024. Learn more at aecom.com.     20 October 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 14, 2025Long Range Prediction in 2050  kathryn.wolak 14 October 2025 Introduction  The idea of being able to make long range predictions, months, seasons or even years ahead involves a complex combination of initial conditions in the atmosphere, ocean, land and cryosphere, a good representation of internal variability and teleconnections across the globe and an accurate prescription of external boundary forcing. Here we take a look at the current state of this science and in spite of the advice attributed to Niels Bohr, that “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”, we make what will perhaps turn out to be a foolhardy attempt to predict some of the future trends in the field.    Scientific Progress  Daily weather appears to have an effective predictability limit of a couple of weeks (Charney 1966; Lorenz 1969; Selz et al., 2019; Zhang et al 2019). However, it’s important to note that this is not due to any randomness in the weather, in fact there is no randomness in weather prediction processes at all. They are the exact opposite and are inherently deterministic: if you start the weather forecast from exactly the same conditions then you get exactly the same forecast. Instead, it’s the inherent sensitivity of atmospheric evolution to small changes (that are both impractical to measure and inevitably present in prediction models) that alters the long-term evolution of the atmosphere and limits long range predictability. At this point we could throw up our hands and say that long range forecasts are a lost cause. This may even be the case for some situations and predictions at one month range for the midlatitudes for example are notoriously difficult and may be limited to sporadic windows of opportunity (Vitart et al., 2017; Kent et al., 2022). However, even these apparent inherent limits on the predictability of daily weather processes are being challenged (Vonich and Hakim, 2024). It is also well established that some processes in the earth system already provide much longer range predictability from the ocean (Msadek et al., 2010; Shukla 1998), from the land (Koster et al., 2004; Seo et al., 2018) or sometimes even from the atmosphere (Scaife et al. 2022), as they have much longer timescales than daily weather. In these cases, like the effects of systematic climate change, they can impart long range predictability of average weather and other weather statistics at forecast ranges of months or even years ahead (Smith et al, 2020; Meehl et al., 2021).   It’s important to realise that some of these processes are not fully understood (Kushnir et al 2019, Schmidt 2024), or are not perfectly represented in the computer models we use for prediction (Anstey et al., 2022; Scaife and Smith 2018; Sun et al., 2015) and are therefore not fully functioning in guiding our predictions. Because of this, we see continued improvements in the understanding (Patrizio et al., 2025), simulation (Takahashi et al., 1999) and skill of long-range predictions of climate variability (Scaife et al., 2014) and their impacts on surface weather and climate. Given all this, my first prediction for 2050 is that provided the research is funded, then our knowledge of climate predictability and the skill of long-range predictions will far exceed our current horizons.    Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence  Meteorology is currently undergoing a revolution. Despite initial scepticism, so called ‘artificial intelligence’ algorithms are now starting to exceed basic aspects of the performance of physics-based computer weather forecasting models. Machine learning (ML) is perhaps a more representative term than Artificial Intelligence (AI) for these new methods, but either way, these empirical models, sometimes trained only on observational reanalysis datasets, are breaking new ground in terms of the skill of weather forecasts and the cost and speed at which forecasts can be produced. They offer great promise of increased skill, cheaper forecast production and reduced energy consumption (Keisler et al., 2022; Bi et al., 2023).   This new methodology and the rapid progress it is making, has surprised many in the field. I’ve observed a kind of three stage process in the response to this revolution. In stage one, on first hearing about new ML breakthroughs, scientists are often naturally initially very sceptical. Later on in stage two, when the initial results are verified and reproduced, we tend to question how far reaching the new results will be and in particular whether they will affect our own work. Then finally, there is a third acceptance stage where we finally admit that actually, this does radically change the state of play. I think this is where we are with ML and weather, while ML and climate is still at stage two, where rapid progress is being made but the full implications are not yet demonstrated. Despite this, it is now clear that not only can very skilful short to medium range weather forecasts be produced using ML models trained on observational reanalysis data but also that skilful subseasonal (Chen et al., 2024) and even seasonal forecasts (Kent et al., 2025) are possible. Other studies have also shown that decadal prediction models can be successfully emulated using neural networks (Toms et al., 2021). Work is now accelerating rapidly on the production of ML climate models (e.g. Watt-Meier et al., 2024; Kochkov et al., 2024), in some cases using purely observational reanalysis data. I stress this cumbersome term as it was not immediately obvious a priori whether the observational record was long enough to achieve this. After all, there are only a few tens of seasons in the modern observational record and the key to successful ML predictions is to provide it with a comprehensive training dataset which can be used to tune the millions of parameters in the underlying neural networks.   There are of course potential pitfalls with these methods. They currently rely mainly on reanalysis data, itself containing traditional, physics-based model information, and the promise of bias free predictions may be overstated. Nevertheless, it does appear that training models on shorter timescale evolution of the atmosphere is sufficient to make successful long range climate simulations (e.g. Watt-Meier et al 2024). Perhaps this is all less surprising when we acknowledge that neural networks can represent any mathematical function (Ismailov 2023, Hecht-Nielsen 1987) and when we see that the results of tests in atmospheric conditions far from those used in the training data reproduce well known atmospheric response patterns (Hakim and Masanam, 2024). These experiments confirm that ML models can encode, at least to some degree, the underlying physical mechanisms that govern climate variability and seasonal to decadal prediction. Although there are always unknown wild cards, for example the advent of quantum computing which could in principle revolutionise the production of forecasts again, neural network methods are likely to drive a revolution in seasonal to decadal prediction as they are already doing in weather forecasting.  I am confident that our physics-based models will continue to be necessary for process based meteorological research. They will be important benchmarks for validating and comparing with ML models, as well as production of additional training data due to the slow accumulation of additional observational samples. They will also likely be needed to verify unusual or out of sample predictions which increase under climate change and may be difficult for ML models. Nevertheless, the revolution in ML methods for weather and climate simulation and prediction leads me to a second prediction for 2050: that machine learning methods will accelerate scientific research and operational production of seasonal to decadal predictions by allowing rapid generation of numerical experiments with ensembles of unprecedented size.     Climate Change  At the current rate of warming we will have long exceeded 1.5 degrees of global warming by 2050 and the Earth will be around 2 degrees warmer than preindustrial levels. The occurrence of extreme weather and climate events under such levels of global change will be commonplace and clear to all. Indeed, the likelihood of unprecedented extremes such as the 40 degree heatwave in the UK in July 2022 is already exponentially increasing (Kay et al., 2025).   Unprecedented events invariably occur when climate variability constructively interferes with the ever-growing climate change signal. Compounded with an ever-growing global population, this means that in the future, seasonal, interannual and decadal predictions of climate variability are going to become all the more important for socio-economic resilience and disaster risk reduction. So whether it is predictions of safe passage routes through the disrupted, and at times ice free Arctic Ocean, predictions of intense winter flooding across northern Europe, or predictions of unprecedented drought in the tropics due to El Niño events; the demand for accurate and reliable seasonal and decadal climate predictions of the coming months and years will be intense. Seasonal to decadal predictions will provide the first warnings of impending unprecedented heat waves, droughts, storms and floods and the first indicators of a multitude of subsequent impacts and consequences.  To serve these needs, the meteorological community needs to step up to the challenge of providing simple, frequently updated climate forecasts with interpretation from the expert meteorologist that are full accessibility by the non-expert layperson. Efforts towards this are already underway (e.g. Kumar et al., (2025); Buontempo et al., (2022); Vera (2024)) but openly available, clear and simple interfaces to skilful and reliable forecasts will be needed if long range prediction is going to fulfil its potential and its promise to society.  There are a few other climate aspects of seasonal and decadal predictions that I can’t leave out of this short perspective:  Although they have not yet been observed in the modern era, potential nonlinear ‘tipping’ points in the climate system that could lead to dramatic and effectively irreversible shifts in regional climate have been identified (Lenton et al., 2008). To this end, it is important that we run very large ensembles of predictions and examine the least likely but most impactful future possibilities. Sudden changes in behaviour like the recent disruption to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation after decades of regular cycling (Osprey et al., 2016) illustrate that such effects could perhaps also occur within tropospheric climate and then affect surface weather. Being alert to these possibilities through deeper understanding of climate dynamics, model limitations and deeper examination of unusual forecast ensemble members during the climate forecast process is needed to address these remote but very impactful possibilities.  There is also a body of work on ‘geoengineering’ which argues that to try to counteract the worst impacts of climate change we could counter climate change with physical interventions, for example to cause global cooling or to avoid the worst extremes (Reynolds, 2019). This controversial area is fraught with ethical problems and perhaps it should never be applied, but if it were to go ahead, there would be a need for real time counterfactuals to establish over many cases and many climate events whether the interventions were having the desired effect. In this case it would be seasonal to decadal ensemble predictions, with and without the geoengineering changes, that would be needed to provide the required statistics to confidently establish the impacts.    In addition to all of this, there is also increased public awareness of climate variability. The general education of society beyond just appreciating that the climate is warming, to include awareness of when and where climate variability is likely to result in the greatest hazards is needed to reap the benefit of seasonal to decadal predictions and allow anticipation of extreme and record-breaking events. We have made a start to this; who has not now heard of the jet stream? or sudden stratospheric warmings? or the El Niño phenomenon? But having a wider appreciation of the impacts of such phenomena is needed to intelligently interpret forecasts.  This all leads to my final prediction, that by 2050, seasonal to decadal predictions will be in greater demand and in greater use than ever before in an age with more frequent weather and climate disasters.    References  Anstey, J.A., Simpson, I.R., Richter, J.H., Naoe, H., Taguchi, M., Serva, F., Gray, L.J., Butchart, N., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Bushell, A.C., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Garcia, R.R., Holt, L., Kawatani, Y., Kerzenmacher, T., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., McLandress, C., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T.N., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K. and Yukimoto, S. (2022). Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc, 148: 1568-1592. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048  Bi, K., Xie, L., Zhang, H., Chen, X., Gu, X., & Tian, Q. (2023). Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks. Nature, 619(7970), 533–538. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06185-3  Buontempo, C., and Coauthors, (2022). The Copernicus Climate Change Service: Climate Science in Action. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 103, E2669–E2687, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0315.1.  Charney, J. G., Fleagle, R. G., Lally, V. E., Riehl, H., & Wark, D. Q. (1966). The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 47, 200–220.  Chen, L., Zhong, X., Li, H. et al. (2024). A machine learning model that outperforms conventional global subseasonal forecast models. Nat Commun 15, 6425 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50714-1  Hakim, G. J., and S. Masanam, (2024). Dynamical Tests of a Deep Learning Weather Prediction Model. Artif. Intell. 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Sci., submitted  Koster R.D. et al., (2004). Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation. Science 305,1138-1140.DOI:10.1126/science.1100217  Kumar et al., (2024). World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Accredited Infrastructure to Support Operational Climate Prediction. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0284.1  Kushnir Y. et al. (2019). Near Term Climate Prediction. Nat. Clim. Ch., 9, 94-101.  Lenton, T.M., et al., (2008).Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105 (6) 1786-1793, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105.  Lorenz, E. N. (1969). Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atm. Sci., 26, 636–646.  Meehl G. et al, 2021. Initialised Earth System Prediction from Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales. Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ., 2, 340-357.  Osprey S., et al. (2016). An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. Science, 0.1126/science.aah4156.  Patrizio, C.R., et al. (2025). Ocean-atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 146. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01027-7  Reynolds J.L. (2019). Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals, Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 475, 2229, 10.1098/rspa.2019.0255  Scaife A.A., et al. (2014). Predictability of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its Northern Winter Teleconnection on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1752-1758.  Scaife A.A. et al. (2022). Long range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day. Nat. Geosci., 10, 10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7.  Selz, T., et al. (2019). Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 757–765, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0373.1.   Seo E., et al., (2018). Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4221-4.  Shukla, J. (1998). Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting. Science 282, 728-731. DOI:10.1126/science.282.5389.728  Smith D. et al., (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583, 796-800.  Sun, C., Li, J. & Jin, FF. A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. Clim Dyn 45, 2083–2099 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2459-z   Takahashi M. (1999). Simulation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 26, Issue 9, 1307-1310.  Vera, C.  (2024). Climate Services in South America. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science.  https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-963.  Vitart, F., et al., (2017). The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1.  Kent et al. (2025). Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data. npj Clim. Atm. Sci., submitted  Msadek, R., K. W. Dixon, T. L. Delworth, and W. Hurlin (2010), Assessing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and associated fingerprints, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19608, doi:10.1029/2010GL044517.  Toms, B. A., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2021). Assessing decadal predictability in an Earth-system model using explainable neural networks. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093842. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093842   Vonich, P. T., & Hakim, G. J. (2024). Predictability limit of the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave from deep-learning sensitivity analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL110651. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110651   Zhang, F., Y. Q. Sun, L. Magnusson, R. Buizza, S. Lin, J. Chen, and K. Emanuel (2019). What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 1077–1091, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0269.1.  14 October 2025 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
October 10, 2025Investigation underway after flight during Storm Amy made three landing attempts in Scotland before flying to Manchester An investigation is under way after a Ryanair flight battling with high wind speeds during storm Amy last week landed at Manchester airport with just six minutes of fuel left in its tanks. The pilots had been taking passengers from Pisa in Italy to Prestwick in Scotland on Friday evening, but wind speeds of up to 100mph meant they were unable to land. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 7, 2025Worsening droughts and floods have destroyed wheat for 4bn loaves of bread and forced record levels of imports One year’s worth of bread has been lost in the UK since 2020 due to extreme weather destroying harvests, a report has found. Droughts and floods, which have been exacerbated by climate breakdown, have created a deficit in wheat production of over 7m tonnes. Experts at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) calculated this is enough wheat to bake more than 4bn loaves of bread – a year’s supply. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 7, 2025National Trust gardeners expect vivid hues and bountiful fungi, nuts and berries thanks to recent weather conditions The season of mists and mellow fruitfulness is likely to be particularly vivid this year, with the combination of a sun-drenched summer and rainy September causing excellent conditions for autumn colour in many of the UK’s loveliest gardens. Experts at the National Trust are predicting a long, gradual wave of reds and yellows, the warm conditions meaning annuals and herbaceous perennials are having a second flush, adding to the bright palette. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 4, 2025Man dies in ‘weather-related incident’ in Co Donegal, while Met Office issues yellow wind warning for whole of UK Storm Amy – latest updates A man has died and a fresh weather warning covers the whole of the UK as Storm Amy continues to bring widespread disruption. Irish police said the man died in a “weather-related” incident in the Letterkenny area of County Donegal, Ireland, shortly after 4.15pm on Friday. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 4, 2025Weather warnings are in place across the UK and Ireland as Network Rail says storm has hit ‘much harder and more quickly than expected’ Amber warning for wind: Covering Orkney and Shetland, Grampian and Highlands & Eilean Siar. The Met Office says to expect power cuts, damage to buildings and travel disruption. It adds that “injuries and danger to life is likely from large waves and beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties”. This warning is in place until 9pm this evening. Yellow warning for wind: Covering the rest of the UK. The Met Office says to expect travel disruption and possible power cuts. For Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and parts of Wales, this warning remains in place until midnight tonight. For the rest of England and Wales, the warning ends at 7pm. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 3, 2025Some rail services in Scotland to end early on Friday as weather warnings in place throughout Britain into weekend Commuters across the UK have been warned about the possibility of widespread travel disruption as Storm Amy looks set to batter the country into the weekend. The first named storm of the season has prompted weather warnings throughout Britain for heavy rain and strong winds of up to 95mph. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
October 1, 2025First named storm of season expected to bring heavy rain and winds over 80mph to northern and western regions Storm Amy, the first named storm of the season, is due to batter northern parts of the UK late on Friday and into Saturday, the Met Office has warned. Forecasters said the storm was likely to bring gale force winds of over 80mph as well as heavy rain to northern and western regions. Continue reading… [...] Read more...

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