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Will it rain today? A useful rainfall rain radar map for the UK. You can easily pan and zoom on the map to view the exact local rainfall.

March 6, 2026Robert Howard, Mary Fitzpatrick and Martin Brown on the delights of dusking Rachel Dixon’s piece about “dusking” (‘All you need is a chair and a view’: could daily ‘dusking’ make us healthier and happier?, 1 March) gave a lovely name to something I having been doing all my life, beginning as a child in the company of my Nanna, in a gas-lit kitchen in Wembley in the 1940s, with no view to speak of – just a back yard. I can see Nanna clearly, sitting on a chair wedged between the dresser and a table, the gas mantle yet to be lit by a taper that stood in a clay pot on top of the range. “Let the night take you and you will sleep all the better for it,” she used to say. And I was always a night-long sleeper – still am as I approach my 82nd birthday. Now the view is a back garden in Beeston; I sit and watch, as the night draws in, in an Ikea chair bought for £9 in 1996, and warm thanks to central heating. If only my Nanna had known such comforts. She died when I was 15, a year after we got electric light, and I had been at work six months, never having the chance to look after her come the time, as I would have done. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
March 4, 2026Saharan dust will transform sunsets and might leave deposits on cars and windows A vast plume of Saharan dust is expected to light up the skies over much of the UK this week. The fine sand lifted from the deserts of North Africa will travel thousands of miles on warm southerly air currents and is set to coat cars and other outdoor surfaces, forecasters said. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
March 4, 2026Ten-point plan to deliver climate education kathy123 04 March 2026 Capitalising on greater climate change, nature and sustainability education in the national curriculum in England will need a detailed programme of support to make the changes a reality, according to a new report published today (Wednesday, 4 March).   The report, produced following discussions with more than 40 professional bodies and teaching organisations, sets out ten priority areas for improving climate education following the government’s Curriculum and Assessment Review. The experts argue that while the curriculum review is a welcome step, real change will require coordinated support across the whole education system. It also urges Ofsted to incorporate schools’ sustainability actions and climate change, nature and sustainability education into their inspection framework.   Professor Sylvia Knight, Head of Education at the Royal Meteorological Society and a Visiting Professor at the University of Reading, said: “The curriculum review has created real momentum for change. We want to make sure that translates into effective climate education in every classroom. Having identified these ten priority areas we can now work together towards achieving them.”   The ten priority areas are: Quality-controlling classroom resources — making sure materials from major publishers are accurate, up to date and adaptable for local use Reforming exam specifications — ensuring climate and nature are examined across multiple subjects, with specifications that can be updated as the science develops Expanding enrichment opportunities — ensuring all students have equal access to climate-related activities outside the classroom Supporting teachers — better training and resources across all subjects, including guidance on handling controversial issues in the classroom Defining essential content — making the basics of climate change causes, consequences and solutions compulsory for every student Keeping the focus on solutions — more emphasis on renewable energy, nature restoration and green careers in lessons, training and exams Improving coherence and sequencing — clearer links between subjects and year groups to avoid repetition and build on prior learning Embedding green skills — weaving data, digital and critical thinking skills into climate and nature teaching across all subjects Strengthening the wider community — closer working between publishers, subject experts, industry and young people Applying a climate lens to every subject — bringing climate and nature into subjects beyond the obvious ones, and ensuring it is covered in teacher training from the start  The report ends by setting out a vision for what successful reform of the education system would look like by 2031. Contributors include the Royal Meteorological Society, the University of Reading, University College London, the National Association for Environmental Education, Global Action Plan, the Council for Subject Associations, the Royal Geographical Society and Cambridge University Press & Assessment.   Notes to editors:   Read: Delivering High Quality Climate Change, Nature and Sustainability Education for All – Beyond the Curriculum and Assessment Review  Professor Sylvia Knight is available for interview. Contact the RMetS Press Office on 0118 208 0142 or comms@rmets.org.   Additional quotes: Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, climate scientist at the University of Reading and chair of the National Climate Education Action Plan, said: “Climate change touches every part of our lives, so it makes sense that it should touch every part of the education young people receive. The reforms to the Science, Geography and Design and Technology curriculum are really welcome, but what our workshop highlighted is the distance still left to travel to ensure that the education system can deliver on these reforms. We highlighted ten priority areas we think need attention to make a real difference.”    Dr Alison Kitson, Programme Director, UCL Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Education at University College London, said: “Any reform to the education system needs to think clearly about what its end goals are. Our report highlights a collective vision for how they could improve the educational experience not just for young people but for teachers, school leaders and many others.”   Dr Morgan Phillips, Associate Director, Global Action Plan, said: “Our report highlights the careful thought, planning, and flexibility that is needed to weave climate change, nature and sustainability education into both the national curriculum and the education system more broadly. This requires collaboration and cooperation across subject disciplines and by curriculum makers at every level of the education system. It has never been more important to facilitate conversations between the department, the curriculum drafters, resource providers, exam boards and, of course, teachers and learners. This report highlights that these conversations are happening, they need to continue throughout the months and years to come.”     Liz Moorse, Chief Executive of the Association of Citizenship Teaching and co-chair of the Council for Subject Associations said: “We must seize this unique moment in education policy to unite education leaders and subject teachers behind a shared mission: to teach environmental change, its impacts and the possible solutions for a more sustainable future. Our report sets out a vision to create a whole system approach so that no child is left without this essential education.”   Christine Ozden, the first Global Director for Climate Education, at Cambridge University Press & Assessment, said: “Today’s young people will inherit the most consequential impacts of climate change and the responsibility to respond to them. We want to support schools to empower them from reception up, so they have the expertise and ability to evaluate evidence, to think critically and to take on jobs in new industries shaped by a green economy. “The UK Government’s recent Curriculum and Assessment Review made positive changes to integrating climate into education. Like the report authors, we see the opportunity and need to embed it right across the curriculum. “This is an excellent report that shares and builds on the expertise and hard work of many people and organisations. Cambridge is proud to have contributed. We are already embedding climate education in our qualifications to ensure that this generation is equipped to contribute to local and global responses to the environmental changes that happen in their lifetimes. Climate change is the defining challenge of our age, and climate education is essential across the curriculum.”    Myles McGinley, Managing Director of Cambridge OCR, said: “This timely report echoes what teachers and students tell us: they want to see more about climate change and sustainability in the curriculum. “Just as climate change touches on every aspect of our lives, it should be present across a student’s education. This is more than just adding a worthy topic to the curriculum. Student engagement and attendance are increasingly challenging for many schools. Part of the solution is providing a curriculum that is engaging and relevant to young people and provides them with the knowledge and skills they need for life and work in a rapidly changing world. “Today’s report notes that there will also be an important place for more climate-relevant qualifications. This is something we have found in the positive response to our certificate in sustainability, aimed at young people who are interested in the green economy. The curriculum, and qualifications available to young people, must never stand still.”  Read the full report here 4 March 2026 Education [...] Read more...
March 2, 2026Statement from the Royal Meteorological Society on the Future of FAAM nathan.reece@r… 02 March 2026 The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS), as the UK’s learned and professional society for weather and climate, recognises the strategic pressures facing public research investment. We note the Natural Environment Research Council’s (NERC) recent announcement outlining a pivot towards new technologies in atmospheric research and the cessation of funding for the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM). As an independent, evidence-based voice for the meteorological community, we believe it is essential that this decision is carefully scrutinised, not only in terms of scientific impact, but in terms of whether it is in the United Kingdom’s long-term strategic interest. For 25 years FAAM has been a cornerstone of UK atmospheric science, and together with its predecessor, the C-130 Hercules aircraft (1972-2001), has enabled UK scientists to carry out world-leading research into cloud processes, atmospheric chemistry, air–sea interaction, severe weather systems, natural hazards, and climate dynamics. Aircraft-based observations provide unique, accurate, high resolution, multi-variate, in situ measurements of the atmosphere that are impossible to obtain by remote sensing, whether from land-based platforms or satellites, or most uncrewed aerial vehicles. These measurements are foundational to the science that underpins weather forecasting, climate projections, air quality management, and environmental policy. FAAM has delivered clear operational and resilience benefits. During the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, flights provided critical evidence to support the UK’s role in the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. The aircraft also made flights at the request of the Home Office in response to the Buncefield oil depot fire and the Elgin gas platform release, among others. These missions illustrate that airborne measurement is not solely a research tool; it is a national contingency asset. Decisions about its future should therefore be viewed through a resilience and security lens, not purely a budgetary one. This capability directly serves the national interest. The atmosphere does not respect borders. Many of the processes that shape UK weather, including rapidly intensifying cyclones, atmospheric rivers, evolving convective systems, ocean–atmosphere heat exchange, occur over the oceans or within dynamic systems beyond the reach of fixed instrumentation. Aircraft provide the flexibility to deploy into developing high-impact events, sampling within clouds and hazardous environments. That flexibility cannot be substituted by land-based assets. Without it, the UK risks weakening its ability to understand and anticipate the very extremes that increasingly threaten lives, infrastructure and economic stability. As one RMetS Fellow reflected: “Scientific aircraft are often seen as glamorous and expensive, but underpinning science is impossible to do without actually getting out there and making the measurements.” Aircraft measurements are also essential for calibrating and validating satellites, testing instrumentation, and improving numerical weather prediction and climate models. In an era of rapid advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning, the strategic importance of high-quality observational data only increases. Data-driven systems are entirely dependent on the integrity and representativeness of the measurements used to train and evaluate them.  RMetS strongly supports innovation in autonomous systems, advanced remote sensing and new observational technologies. These developments are welcome and necessary. However, they should be regarded as complementary to airborne capability, not replacements for it. Uncrewed systems typically carry smaller payloads, have range and regulatory limitations, and cannot yet deliver the breadth of simultaneous, high-precision measurements required to understand complex atmospheric processes. Critically, without aircraft-based observations, the UK would lose its ability to properly calibrate and validate the very drone and satellite systems intended to replace it. A transition that removes airborne capability before alternatives are demonstrably equivalent risks creating a long-term capability gap. We are also concerned by widespread reports that this decision followed limited consultation and came as a shock to much of the atmospheric science community. Major changes to national research infrastructure, particularly those involving assets with decades-long lifetimes, warrant transparent process, broad engagement and clear articulation of the strategic rationale. Abrupt withdrawal risks not only scientific loss but erosion of trust between funders and the communities they support. Finally, there is the question of skills and national capacity. FAAM sustains a highly specialised community of scientists, engineers, technicians and aircrew whose expertise has been built over decades. Once dispersed, such capability is extraordinarily difficult, and costly, to recreate. Strategic interest must include consideration of whether the UK wishes to retain sovereign capability in airborne atmospheric measurement, or become reliant on others. The United Kingdom has long been recognised as a global leader in atmospheric science. That leadership rests on a balanced ecosystem: satellites, surface networks, modelling, autonomous systems and airborne platforms working together. As weather and climate risks intensify, not diminish, the case for comprehensive observational capability strengthens. RMetS therefore urges continued dialogue between funders, government and the scientific community to reassess the long-term implications of this decision. Investment in new technology is essential, but it should build on proven strengths, not prematurely dismantle them. The question is not simply whether FAAM is affordable in the short term, but whether its loss serves the country’s strategic scientific, economic and resilience interests in the decades ahead.  2 March 2026 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
February 24, 2026Andrew Hiscock says the Netherlands’ handling of flooding in 1953 has stood it in good stead. Plus letters from John Sergeant and Michael Heaton In the Netherlands, much of which is below sea level, we have not had a single square metre of flooding since 1953 (‘Homes may have to be abandoned’: how climate crisis has reshaped Britain’s flood risk, 31 January). In that year, a storm surge erupted in the North Sea, engulfing much of East Anglia as well as the Dutch province of Zeeland. The Dutch built the Delta Works to fix this; the English did nothing. Years of investment in land reclamation and flood-defence experience were brought into play. The Netherlands handles the delta/distributaries of two of Europe’s greatest rivers – the Rhine (Rijn) and the Meuse (Maas). I live five metres from a major inland waterway and the level does not change. My cousin lives in Somerset (twinned with Atlantis) and is already on his third flooding of 2026. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 19, 2026Wet fields drive away rodents, leaving barn owls without much prey, but gulls of all kinds are attracted by the water The Somerset Levels flood regularly – but this year, after very heavy winter rains, the fields and moors are overflowing with water. So what effect does this have on wintering birds? Like most extreme weather events, there are winners and losers. Huge flocks of gulls are gathering in the flooded fields to feed, with scarcer Mediterranean and little gulls joining the regular black-headed, herring and common varieties. These have attracted a white-tailed eagle from the Isle of Wight reintroduction project, although it does not appear to have caught any victims yet. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 18, 2026As storms intensify and flooding becomes more frequent, many communities say infrastructure is struggling to cope. We want to hear how resilient your community feels to more extreme weather Persistent rain and repeated flooding are testing the resilience of rural communities across the UK, impacting daily life, work and people’s livelihoods. In recent years, repeated storms and long periods of rain have overwhelmed drainage systems, cut off villages, damaged roads and disrupted power and broadband services. Scientists warn that heavier winter rainfall is arriving earlier than expected, while councils and the Environment Agency face funding pressures and difficult decisions about where to prioritise protection. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 15, 2026Flooding expected in parts of south-west of England and Midlands and chance of snow showers in far north Anyone hoping for relief from the UK’s wet weather may be disappointed next week, with more flooding expected and patches of snow forecast. The Environment Agency has issued 73 flood warnings, meaning flooding is expected, mainly in areas of the south-west of England and the Midlands. There are also 177 flood alerts – which indicate possible flooding – in place across England. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 15, 2026Wetter winters are set to become the norm, so unless we’re farmers or flood victims, we need some coping strategies to keep our spirits up There’s a lot of complaining about the weather currently and I get it, it’s wet. Here in York the river is getting above itself yet again and the council has fenced off large puddles in the park for health and safety reasons, to widespread mockery. Things currently taking in water include the letterbox (yesterday the postman told me with a manic laugh that he was leaving for the Philippines), the hens, my shoes and our car, which is growing moss around the windows. On the inside. But does it merit all the moaning? I don’t mean farmers, for whom it’s a catastrophe, flood victims or the poor folk of Cardinham, North Wyke and Astwood Bank, who endured a biblical 40 days straight of rain. They’re entitled to rend their garments and corral their pets into boats, two by two. But maybe the rest of us, just dealing with it being “quite wet”, could get a grip. When life gives you rain, make rain-ade (do not drink rain; it’s full of forever chemicals)! After all – OK, not the cheeriest thought – this could be as good as it gets in future, given accelerating climate breakdown. At the very least, these wet patches will probably happen more often, so we need coping strategies. Here are mine. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 14, 2026A thatcher, gardener and others on keeping their business afloat in the bad weather – and their fears for the future With 76 flood warnings still in force across the UK and further downpours forecast this week and next, parts of the country have endured rain almost without pause since the start of the year. The prolonged wet weather is disrupting livelihoods as well as daily life, particularly in rural areas, where flooded roads, waterlogged ground and repeated storms are making it harder to keep businesses afloat, protect crops and maintain steady work. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 14, 2026Bizarre idioms for downpours are just one facet of how the UK uses dark humour and ritual to brave the wet May it fall as a blessing, not as a curse. So goes the ancient prayer inviting us to embrace days of rain. It is a prayer that would not be welcomed by anyone on the floodplains the UK persists in filling with houses. It would be met with outright hostility by any farmers who are now unable to do any of the things they need to do in February because their land has had literally 40 days and nights of rain. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 13, 2026Section of A66 closed and warning of travel disruption amid freezing temperatures in Scotland and northern England A major road across the Pennines has been closed as an Arctic blast brought snow, ice and freezing temperatures to Scotland and northern England. The Met Office said widespread travel disruption was likely on Friday as it issued two yellow warnings that will remain in place until noon. Freezing temperatures have led to a four-day health alert for cold weather. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 12, 2026Glimpse of sun after weeks of unrelenting rain marks end of longest sunless period in area since records began Aberdeen has finally had some sunshine, for the first time in 21 days – marking the end of the longest sunless period in the area since Met Office records began in 1957. Residents of the Granite city in north-east Scotland glimpsed the sun late on Thursday afternoon, with sunshine having been last recorded on 21 January. The Met Office said that 30 minutes of sun was officially recorded in the Dyce area in the hour up to 4pm. It followed weeks of unrelenting rain in the region and throughout the UK. More than 277mm of rain fell on Aboyne in Aberdeenshire in January, about four times the monthly average, while the first 10 days of the year brought heavy snow to the north-east of Scotland. In just the first three days of this month, south-east England received nearly a third of its average February rainfall. The wintry weather is expected to continue, with a yellow warning for snow and ice for most of Scotland and northern England in place until 12 noon on Friday. The Met Office spokesperson Grahame Madge said an air mass called Arctic maritime air is bringing temperatures down. He said: “The snow and ice warnings that we’ve issued at the moment cover pretty much Scotland and northern parts of England. There may be some snow showers a little bit further south than that. “We’re not expecting any particularly impactful snow and the conditions will be quite brief before we get another system coming in from the Atlantic over the weekend, but for the next few days it will feel quite a bit different, as we’ve got colder air coming in.” BBC Scotland weather presenter Judith Ralston said: “With a change in weather type, we finally lose the stuck pattern of cloud, rain, and bitingly cold winds. “This finally breaks, allowing a northerly air mass to set in, bringing much drier, brighter conditions, sunshine on the way on Friday and Saturday and a few wintry showers on Friday.” Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 12, 2026People are (rightly) complaining about the records being set for extreme rainfall. Personally, I’m finding it oddly rewarding Whenever it rained when I was a child, my mother did something that seemed normal at the time yet seems quite mad looking back: she dragged the huge, heavy plants from the living room – the massive bird of paradise; the hulking clivias in their enormous tubs – out on to the patio so they could “enjoy a drink”. She came from the southern hemisphere where water was in short supply and, while she grew depressed every January and hated English winters, she never found rain less than thrilling. Well, here we are in February after more than a month of what the Met Office is delicately calling the “unusually southerly jet stream”, what Shakespeare neatly immortalised with “for the rain it raineth every day” and what the rest of us have been summarising with the sentiment “is it ever going to fucking stop”? I’m English, so talking about rain and its related conditions occupies 30% of my personality at any given time, but most of us have hit a wall at this point. According to the weather people, 26 weather stations in the UK set new records for the highest-ever January rainfall last month and in Aberdeen they haven’t seen the sun since the iron age. Emma Brockes is a Guardian columnist Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 11, 2026In Cardinham, which has had 366mm of rain this year, there’s little need to check the weather forecast: more rain Tell us: how have you been affected by the rainy weather in the UK? “I’m thinking of building an ark,” said Sarah Cowen, an artist and cafe owner. “It’s been horrendous. We’ve never known anything like it. The mud, the silt, the endless rain.” Cowen is one of a hardy, if soggy, bunch who live or work in and around the parish of Cardinham, on the edge of Bodmin Moor in Cornwall, which has endured 41 consecutive days of rain – and counting. “This is definitely global warming. You get either baking sun or continuous rain,” Cowen said. The locals don’t have to look at the weather forecast here at the moment. “You know it’s going to be rain,” Cowen said. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 10, 2026We would like to hear from people about the impact of the wet weather conditions in the UK Persistent rain and flooding is affecting farmers, builders, sports, wildlife – and damaging roads and homes across the UK. Parts of Devon, Cornwall and Worcestershire have seen rainfall daily for the last 40 days, while provisional Met Office statistics show that Northern Ireland experienced its wettest January in 149 years. Wales has reached 39% of its February monthly average rainfall already. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 10, 2026Persistent wet weather is affecting farmers, builders, sports, wildlife – and damaging roads and homes “Feel like it hasn’t stopped raining?” the Met Office asked on Monday. For some places, the forecaster said, it really had rained every day so far this year. People who live in parts of Devon, Cornwall and Worcestershire have been dodging deluges or showers for 40 days – the same number of days that it rained in the Bible’s Noah’s ark story, the same number of soggy days you can expect if it rains on St Swithin’s Day, according to folklore. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 9, 2026The disruption and distress caused by record downpours must focus minds on the need for climate preparedness With flood warnings still in place across south-west England and Wales on Monday, followed by another fortnight of wet weather forecasts, the sodden ground across swathes of the UK is not likely to dry up any time soon. Reports that Aberdonians have not seen so much as a sliver of sun since 21 January prompted an outburst of stoicism on BBC radio, with one resident commenting: “You have to get on with it, brighter days are coming”. Before then, however, north-east Scotland is braced for more heavy rain. For farmers and businesses in the affected areas, the impact goes far beyond inconvenience. Marketing consultant Sam Kirby told the Guardian that she had to work from a car park in Cornwall following Storm Goretti, because her broadband wasn’t working. And Goretti was the first of three January storms. Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 9, 2026It has rained in parts of the country every day of the year so far and downpours are expected to continue this week In a “miserable and relentlessly wet” start to the year, rain has fallen in parts of the UK every day for weeks without fail. With more than 100 flood warnings active across the country and downpours expected to continue this week, scientists say the forces behind Britain’s constant drizzle are the same ones bringing devastation to Spain and Portugal. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 8, 2026Met Office issues fresh yellow warning for rain as parts of England are still recovering from extensive flooding More than 200 flood alerts were active across the UK on Sunday as parts of England and Wales braced for more downpours after the Met Office issued a fresh yellow warning for rain. The warning spans noon to midnight on Monday, covering parts of southern Wales as well as south-east and south-west England. The Met Office said that “10-15mm of rain is likely fairly widely with 20-30mm in some places exposed to the strong south to south-easterly winds”. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 8, 2026Community organiser Jon Barrett says event, inspired by the tradition Solmōnaþ, aims to reconnect people with benefits of mud A misty, rainy day in the uplands of Somerset and the mud was thick and sticky. In some patches, just putting one foot in front of the other without plunging into the mire felt like a win. But Jon Barrett, a community engagement officer for the Quantock Hills national landscape, had a broad grin on his face as he negotiated the ooze. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 7, 2026Met Office forecasts more rainfall to continue UK’s 37-day run, and flooding expected especially in south-west England and Midlands The unrelenting rain is expected to continue on Sunday and into next week with dozens of flood warnings in place across Great Britain. The Environment Agency (EA) has issued 85 warnings for England, meaning flooding is expected, mainly concentrated in the south-west and Midlands. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 7, 2026Continue reading… [...] Read more...
February 5, 2026New Research in Weather: Probability Forecasts nathan.reece@r… 05 February 2026 Weather, the Royal Meteorological Society’s long-standing member journal, continues to serve as a publication of choice for research that shapes both scientific thinking and practical understanding of weather and climate. With its focus on accessible, peer-reviewed science that speaks to researchers, practitioners and enthusiast readers alike, the journal regularly showcases work that underpins the societal value of weather and climate science, from risk awareness to real-world decision-making. This latest example comes from colleagues at the Met Office, whose new paper in Weather brings together 25 years of research to examine why probability-based forecasting is becoming central to modern weather prediction – and why concerns about public understanding of uncertainty may be misplaced. Why probability is the key to future weather forecasts  Probability-based forecasts can better inform weather-based decision-making, according to new Met Office research. For the first time, the Met Office has brought together 25 years of research to explain why probabilistic forecasting is becoming central to UK weather prediction. The research, funded by Public Weather Service and published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s Weather, is a comprehensive analysis of how probability-based forecasts, which capture the inherent uncertainty of predicted weather patterns, can provide enhanced forecasts that better inform decision-making. In addition, the peer-reviewed research discusses how public understanding of probability-based forecasts should not be a barrier to uptake as has been previously thought. Uncertainty in forecasting Probability forecasts, based on ensemble forecasting as it’s referred to in meteorological science, is a fundamentally different approach to many weather forecasts that appear on TV.  While on traditional broadcasts, presenters stand in front of a map and show a single (deterministic) projection of future weather patterns, ensemble forecasts use slightly different starting conditions to run the forecast forward multiple times. This approach produces an ensemble forecast – typically 20-50 simulations – offering a richer and more nuanced picture of possible outcomes.   The graph above gives a representation of how ensemble forecasting works. Lines closer together indicate greater certainty, while large deviations represent uncertainty in possible outcomes.  The Met Office has pioneered use of ensemble predictions, initially for month-ahead predictions, with research as far back as 1986 on running the forecast ultiple times to better understand the likely scenarios for the atmosphere. Just small changes in starting conditions can result in big changes to forecasts, usually at longer ranges but sometimes at short ranges, so an ensemble forecast is a method of capturing and communicating that uncertainty. Author of the new research, Met Office Science Fellow Ken Mylne, said: “Ensemble forecasts have often operated as a supplementary system for meteorologists, running alongside single deterministic model runs to provide a measure of uncertainty. “However, studies over many years show how ensembles provide better predictive skill than single deterministic runs and could, with greater focus on ensembles, capture the range of uncertainty to provide the public with the information they need to make better decisions.” Understanding probability in forecasts  The research also addresses whether people can understand uncertainty in forecasts, something that is crucial to realise full benefits from a different approach to producing a weather forecast.  Communicating uncertainty is often done by presenters with their language, though the most common way uncertainty is communicated through many apps is the ‘% chance of rain’ that is displayed. This is most people’s interaction with ensemble forecasts, communicating the percentage chance of rain falling in a particular hour or day, informed by model runs which capture that uncertainty. Above, example ideas for how precipitation probabilities could be presented clearly for rapid assimilation and good user comprehension. Ken explained how previous assumptions around a lack of understanding of probabilities may not be true. He said: “Most previous discussions on expressing probabilities in forecasts started from an assumption that they can be hard for people to understand and that expressing uncertainty could undermine people’s confidence in the forecast and therefore undermine their ability to make decisions. “However, this research suggests that this assumption is wrong. People can understand probabilistic forecasts and could indeed find it more useful for informing weather-based decisions.” Read the full articles in February’s Weather: Probability forecasts – Part 1: ensembles and probabilistic forecasts Probability forecasts – Part 2: will people understand? 5 February 2026 Publications [...] Read more...
February 4, 2026Call for Papers: RMetS Annual Weather and Climate Conference 2026 nathan.reece@r… 04 February 2026 Abstract submissions are still open for the RMetS Annual Weather and Climate Conference 2026, with around four weeks remaining before the deadline of Friday 27 February.  Taking place at University of Exeter, 8–10 July, the Annual Weather and Climate Conference brings together researchers, practitioners, and industry experts from across the UK and beyond, offering a rich programme of keynote talks, scientific sessions, posters, and workshops covering the full breadth of weather and climate science. The conference is a focal point for professional exchange, collaboration, and community building – an opportunity to hear the latest research, connect with colleagues from across the sector, and contribute to key discussions shaping the field. We welcome contributions from all those working in or studying weather and climate, their applications, and related interdisciplinary fields, across academia and the public and private sectors. We particularly welcome submissions relating to the following broad themes, which will run across the conference: Extreme Weather Events: Prediction, variability and impacts Methodological advances, including machine learning Urban meteorology and air quality Climate variability and change from seasons to decades We welcome abstracts from all career stages. The deadline for abstract submission is Friday 27 February 2026.  Find out more and submit an abstract   4 February 2026 RMetS – General [...] Read more...
January 30, 2026Weather service research finds less accurate probability-based predictions are still considered helpful The Met Office is to lean into one of Britain’s favourite pastimes – talking about the weather – by launching a new two-week forecast. At present, the publicly funded weather and climate service offers a seven-day forecast on its website and app with an hourly breakdown for the first five days and then a three-hourly breakdown for the final two days. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
January 29, 2026Met Office issues yellow rain alerts in south-west, with 66 flood warnings – indicating expected flooding – in force Nearly 150 flood alerts remain in place across England as communities continue grappling with the aftermath of Storm Chandra. A yellow rain alert spanning from noon to midnight on Thursday has been issued for parts of south-west England, with the Met Office warning that more flooding could hit roads, homes and businesses. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
January 29, 2026Emergency pumps are deployed in attempt to stop water inundating homes around River Parrett ‘Like a sea out there’: flooded Somerset residents wonder how water can be managed Since medieval monks started draining and managing the Somerset Levels, humans have struggled to live and work alongside water. “At the moment it feels like a losing battle,” said Mike Stanton, the chair of the Somerset Rivers Authority. “Intense rainfall is hitting us more often because of climate change. It may be that in the next 50 years, perhaps in the next 20, some homes around here will have to be abandoned.” Continue reading… [...] Read more...
January 28, 2026People in south-west mop up after Storm Chandra and prepare for next bout of rain, with major incident declared In the early hours, the Wade family’s boxer puppy began barking. Thinking it needed to be let out, they traipsed downstairs and opened the back door – to be greeted not by their neat garden but an expanse of water. “It was like a sea out there,” said James Wade. Over the coming hours the water crept into their home on a modern estate in Taunton, forcing James, his wife, Faye, and their three children, six, 11 and 12, out and into emergency accommodation. Continue reading… [...] Read more...
January 27, 2026Storm Chandra hit the UK on Tuesday, causing hundreds of schools to close and disrupting travel due to heavy rain and strong winds. Footage from social media showed huge waves crashing onto the shore of Mousehole in Cornwall, and a flooded river Clyst in Devon. In Ireland, people struggled with flooding damage to homes and businesses Swathes of south-west England flooded and cut off by Storm Chandra Continue reading… [...] Read more...

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